Korean stars who started before they were 18 are read more today than those who started at 26. Is that about starting young, or about having been around longer?
Of 584 Korean actors and singers whose career start year is on record, the 105 who started before 18 — IU, Im Yoon-ah, Bae Suzy among them — are read 11.89 times per million. The 67 who started at 26 or later, including Ma Dong-seok, Lee Sun-kyun, Lee Joo-bin, are read 2.43.
The obvious objection is that someone who started at ten has simply had longer to collect readers. It does not hold: the median career length is within two years of itself in all four bands.
| Started at | People | Median career, years |
|---|---|---|
| under 18 | 105 | 22 |
| 18 to 21 | 253 | 22 |
| 22 to 25 | 159 | 20 |
| 26 or older | 67 | 22 |
We also held career length inside a window of 10 to 20 years and measured again. The ladder survives, but the two youngest bands come together — so it becomes three steps rather than four.
| Started at | People | Reads per million | Career held at 10–20 years | Most-read in this band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| under 18 | 105 | 11.89 | 13.42 | IU 208.57 · Im Yoon-ah 205.69 · Bae Suzy 165.9 |
| 18 to 21 | 253 | 6.68 | 12.65 | Cha Eun-woo 200.33 · Park Ji-hoon 128.42 · Ji Chang-wook 127.62 |
| 22 to 25 | 159 | 4.8 | 8.58 | Go Youn-jung 273.06 · Kim Seon-ho 220.56 · Song Joong-ki 106.36 |
| 26 or older | 67 | 2.43 | 2.9 | Ma Dong-seok 59.84 · Lee Sun-kyun 43.55 · Lee Joo-bin 28.55 |
Every step falls, both before and after holding career length — 4.89× end to end raw, 4.63× with career held. But look at the fourth column. Once career is held, the two youngest bands land at 13.42 and 12.65, close enough that we would not separate them. The four-step ladder becomes three.
Every median here survives removing any single person from its band, which rules out one way it could be fragile and does not show that it is stable. The check is a jackknife, which is known to understate how much a median moves. The method and its limits are here.
Take one star who started before 18 and one who started at 26 or later, at random. How often is the early starter the more-read one?
72.7%
The chance that a randomly chosen star who started before 18 is read more than a randomly chosen star who started at 26 or later, counting ties as half. This is the common-language effect size (McGraw and Wong 1992); it equals the Mann-Whitney U statistic divided by the number of pairs (Mann and Whitney 1947). Fifty per cent would mean the bands say nothing at all about an individual.
Not cause. Starting young may bring readers, being the kind of child who gets cast may be the thing that shows up later, or something we have not measured drives both.
Not present age. Debut age and current age move together here and we cannot separate them.
Not everyone. Only stars whose career start year is on Wikidata are in this panel.
Not popularity. Reads count people opening an encyclopaedia article in four languages.
The four bands are ours. We cut at 18, 22 and 26 because those splits leave every band with enough people to measure; a different cut would give different medians.
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